The race to electrify heavy trucks is heating up, and it's not just about hydrogen. While hydrogen fuel cells have been touted as the solution to decarbonizing long-haul trucking, recent developments suggest that battery-electric trucks are gaining ground and may be the future of heavy-duty transportation.
The Hydrogen Advantage
Hydrogen fuel cells have long been seen as a viable option for heavy trucks due to their high energy density and fast refueling times, similar to diesel. Canada's Hydrogen Strategy, released in 2020, projected a significant role for fuel cells in trucking, with transportation accounting for 13% of hydrogen demand by 2050. The weight of batteries, the document argued, would make it impractical for heavy-duty trucks to carry heavy loads over long distances.
Battery-Electric Trucks Take Off
However, battery-electric trucks are now challenging hydrogen's dominance. China, a key player in the electric vehicle market, has been rapidly adopting both battery and hydrogen technologies. In 2025, China had about 35,000 fuel cell trucks, with 95% of them in the country, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The same year, China accounted for 90% of electric truck sales, with around one million electric trucks on the road.
The growth in China's electric truck market is attributed to high diesel prices and the expansion of charging infrastructure. Battery swapping stations, which can replace depleted batteries in just five minutes, are being rapidly deployed, allowing for quick and efficient charging. This has made battery-electric trucks a more practical and cost-effective solution for heavy-duty transportation.
The Economic Case for Batteries
The economic case for battery-electric heavy-duty trucks is strengthening. While battery trucks are currently more expensive upfront, their fuel costs are significantly lower. Nikita Pavlenko, director of the fuels and aviation program at the International Council on Clean Transportation, notes that hydrogen trucks have not seen the same cost improvements and that hydrogen itself is very expensive.
Hydrogen's Challenges
Hydrogen fuel cells face several challenges. The production and distribution of hydrogen, often derived from fossil fuels, can be costly and environmentally questionable. Additionally, the infrastructure for refueling hydrogen trucks is less developed than that for charging battery-electric trucks. This makes it difficult to ensure a reliable supply of hydrogen at an affordable price.
The Future of Hydrogen Trucks
Despite these challenges, hydrogen trucks are not entirely without hope. Sinopec, a Chinese state-owned oil and gas company, believes that hydrogen fuel cells must differentiate themselves from batteries and emphasize their advantages for heavy loads and long-distance travel. However, the rapid advancements in battery technology and the growing infrastructure for electric trucks may make it difficult for hydrogen to catch up.
Canada's Dilemma
In Canada, the push to electrify commercial vehicles is facing a significant obstacle: the battery. While hydrogen has established technologies and proven pilots, the country is still grappling with the limitations of battery technology. David Billedeau, president of the Canadian Hydrogen Association, argues that batteries have very limited applications for long-haul trucking. However, the development of the Megawatt Charging Standard, which allows for rapid charging of heavy trucks, could be a game-changer.
Conclusion
The race to electrify heavy trucks is far from over, but the current momentum seems to be favoring battery-electric trucks. While hydrogen fuel cells have their advantages, the rapid advancements in battery technology and the growing infrastructure for electric vehicles may make it difficult for hydrogen to establish a dominant position in the market. As the industry continues to evolve, the future of heavy-duty transportation may be a mix of both technologies, but for now, batteries are pulling ahead.
